Housing Need 2040 Report

England's housing demand forecast: Population growth and regional needs to 2040

On 12 December 2024, the government adopted a revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and, with it, a new standard method for calculating minimum housing need, In response, we have updated our Housing 2040 report with the most up to date figures.

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What’s in the report?

Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Census data (2021) and population projections, we have built a national and regional picture of England’s housing need in 2040. Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s standard method.

As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.

The following report predicts where the highest number of first-time buyers and family homes will be required and separately, where the greatest need for affordable housing lies.

The report also highlights areas with the greatest ageing populations and predicts under-occupation of homes by those aged 65+, ultimately identifying opportunities for right-sizing properties and later living accommodation.

We show which areas will see the largest growth in student-age populations and therefore where the demand for purpose-built accommodation will be highest. It also places a spotlight on each region in England. The data follows trends and highlights significant areas of need, and therefore areas of opportunity.

If we are going to meet the needs of the population in 2040, we need to start building the right homes today.